Australian gold bugs rejoice in year of new bullion super-cycle
20 November 2025
Australia finds itself at the heart of a rising gold cycle. Thanks to elevated global prices and improved corporate governance among its miners, the world’s second-largest gold producer is benefiting from a rare alignment.
Gold export earnings surged 42% to A$47 billion this year and are forecast to climb to A$60 billion next year — putting the metal on track to become Australia’s second-largest export after iron ore.[1],[2]
Amid global uncertainties — from renewed inflation risks in the US to a weakening dollar — gold is once again being cast as the ultimate portfolio hedge. Several banks have now raised price targets for gold, with the yellow metal expected to reach nearly $5,000 an ounce by the end of the year.[3],[4]
One reason gold’s rally feels so resilient is the role of central banks. Traditionally, gold rallies on investor fear. Today, however, central banks themselves are driving demand — buying at record pace to rebalance reserves, reduce reliance on the dollar, and safeguard strategic autonomy.
China stands out as the most aggressive buyer and is widely expected to accelerate its accumulation of gold over the next year. The metal accounts for only about 9% of China’s $3.7 trillion in reserves — far below the global average of roughly 30%.[5]
Add to that gold’s enduring role in Asian household savings, and the result is a structural demand base that extends well beyond Western investment flows.
While many expected a currency war this year — the US dollar versus the rest — precious metals have clearly won. Gold and silver have outperformed fiat currencies and reinforced their role as stores of value.
For investors wary of a potential US equities drawdown, gold exposure — whether through bullion or miners — can be a useful hedge. An alternative could be broader Australian equities: the S&P/ASX 200 has risen nearly 20% from its “Liberation Day” lows in April 2025, reflecting renewed strength in commodities and domestic earnings.[6]
Equity-backed financing can provide a way to fund such positions without selling long-term holdings, preserving both liquidity and upside.
Looking beyond bullion
The bigger story in gold may lie beyond bullion. Australian gold miners represent a leveraged way to capture upside. The sector has expanded production and exports sharply in recent years, with balance-sheet discipline improving after past excesses.[7]
In the previous gold rally that ended in 2013, Australia’s mining stocks underperformed sharply, dropping 16% over three years while gold itself soared 52%.[8] Following the correction of gold prices in 2012, the industry took approximately $129 billion of write-downs.[9]
While gold glittered, miners stumbled. Over two decades, gold equities trailed bullion gains thanks to spiralling costs and chronic operational inefficiency. Add to that a spree of ill-conceived acquisitions and a disregard for capital discipline, and the result was a sector that squandered its golden era.[10]
Could this year be different? Gold miners are demonstrating greater cost discipline by deploying innovative, cost‑efficient technologies. And while overall sector exploration has declined, major producers increased exploration spending by just 6% year‑on‑year to over US$3 billion in 2024, with most of the investment directed toward lower‑risk brownfield projects rather than early‑stage ventures.[11]
Australia also boasts a deep bench of miners and explorers, giving investors access to opportunities across the value chain. As consolidation among major producers has limited acquisition opportunities, junior and mid-cap explorers advancing projects in Australia’s proven gold provinces, in particular, have come into the limelight.[12]
Several ASX-listed gold miners were ranked among the best-performing stocks in Australia in the fiscal year ending in June — even before the record two-month surge in gold to more than $4,000 an ounce in early October.[13] Macquarie analysts expect that favourable earnings in the forthcoming quarters could see gold stocks potentially double in value in the near term.[14]
As the world deglobalises and competition for strategic commodities intensifies, miners anchored in resource-rich and politically stable jurisdictions like Australia look likely to benefit the most. For investors, their combination of operational scale, improving governance and exposure to a long-term structural theme offers the potential for higher returns than bullion.
Whether seeking exposure to bullion or to the miners powering the rush, equity-backed financing can offer investors liquidity they need to capture upside or diversify holdings — a timely consideration amid global growth concerns and a softer US dollar.
[1] https://www.mining.com/web/gold-to-overtake-lng-met-coal-as-australias-second-most-valuable-export/
[2] https://minerals.org.au/resources/gold-on-track-to-become-australias-second-largest-export-earner-fueling-national-prosperity/
[3] https://www.reuters.com/business/goldman-hikes-december-2026-gold-price-forecast-4900oz-2025-10-07/
[4] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/hsbc-expects-golds-bull-wave-hit-5000oz-2026-2025-10-17/
[5] https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202510/25/WS68fc83fba310f735438b6ed5.html
[6] https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/07/asx-200-sp-share-market-australian-dollar-sheds-opening-us-tariffs-trade-war-fears
[7] https://www.ft.com/content/91856dda-a054-409d-a693-f47361acf75a
[8] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-09-06/the-new-gold-rush-why-it-s-different-in-australia-video
[9] https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/metals-and-mining/our-insights/can-the-gold-industry-return-to-the-golden-age
[10] https://www.pmcapital.com.au/insight/gold-rally-most-investors-missed
[11] https://www.ey.com/content/dam/ey-unified-site/ey-com/en-au/insights/mining-metals/documents/ey-the-2025-risks-and-opportunities-for-the-gold-mining-sector-240425-002.pdf
[12] https://www.australianmining.com.au/junior-gold-explorers-finally-see-investment-flow-as-prices-soar/
[13] https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business%2Fasx-roars-in-2025-led-by-tech-and-banking-stocks%2Fnews-story%2F2082c9ad7f9b2f1917c34ad63ea69179
[14] https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business%2Fmarkets%2Faustralias-gold-miners-are-well-positioned-if-the-rally-in-precious-metals-continues-say-analysts%2Fnews-story%2F4070a87743a19b0a27049504269b10e5
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